CCPs LONG-DISTANCE TRAVEL CHANGES

So, finally, an EVE Post thats not about 3rd party stuff.

CCP just announced a few changes in a devblog, which are already causing a gigantic forum threadnaught the TL;DR is:
all jump drive capable ships gain the ability to use stargates, but get their maximum jump distance lowered to 5ly (except blackops, they will still be able to go about 8ly). Also there will be a cooldown time on jumping per character (including jumpbridges, titan bridges, blackops bridges and own jumpdrive, excluding stargates), which multiplies per jump, and has a pretty slow decay.

Right now there is a lot of people who actually celebrate this change as the downfall of the large coalitions and the botlrd meta coalition, well they are wrong. CFC and PL have been asking for changes like this for a long time, not because they want the game to be better (thats what they claim) but because a mechanic like this will give a huge defenders advantage, meaning they can keep all this huge sov that they have at the moment, and can use their caps in there within relative safety (anyone remember that the botlrd agreement actually has rules on when and how caps are allowed into which parts of eachothers territory? now there is a change which will make it easier to prevent someone from abusing this).

Now, I’ve already posted this on the eve forums, but i feel this is blog worthy.

…lets have a look through the crystal ball.
Lets assume in Winter there forms a new Coalition, made up by people who are fed up with the botlrd-stalemate, a problem that those large nullsec entities have created for themselves. Lets call them Hipster Kid Coalition for the course of this post. Hipster Kid Coalition is made up of a few veteran corporations/alliances as well as some people new to sov warfare, so you have vets in caps and new guys in support.
One fine day a CFC Member living in VFK forgets to pay their Sov bills. The leadership of Hipster Kid Coalition calls the coalition to arms to go for an surprise attack against the heart of the botlrd-participants – VFK-IV. Fully motivated, chanting “satan your kingdom must come down” they start charging towards their destination.

As their maximum bridge/jump range is now 5ly, they will have to take a route like:

-> Jan
1. Jump -> 4.267 ly MJI3-8
2. Jump -> 4.299 ly GIH-ZG
3. Jump -> 4.278 ly UR-E6D
4. Jump -> 4.282 ly TXME-A
5. Jump -> 3.512 ly VFK-IV

this is under an ideal-circumstances assumption, in reality they probably have to take more jumps (cyno jammers…)

with the fatigue mechanics, assuming no one ****** up, and so all start with empty fatigue this is:
1st Jump: estimated stay in MJI3-8: 1 minute + 4.27 minutes = 5.27 Minutes (5m16s) (reallity: more as the titans bridge first and then jump, so everyone has to wait for the fatigue of the last titan), after decay that leaves a fatigue of about 4.77.
2nd jump: estimated stay in GIH-7G: 4.77 * (1+4.3) = 25.281 Minutes (25m:16s), after decay 22.78.
3rd jump: estimated stay in UR-E6D: 22.78 * (1+4.28) = 120.2784 Minutes (2h:00m:16s), after decay about 118.
4th jump: estimated stay in TXME-A: 118 * (1+4.28) = 623.04 Minutes (10h23m:2s), after decay about 561.
final jump, leaving earliest jump escape to safe the fleet: 561 * (1 + 3.51) = 2530.11min (1d:17h…)

What does that mean:

  • Defender gains Advantage 1: he can block gates on the route to prevent conventional travel, we have seen this in the past, you just bubble up the gates and camp ’em to death, defender wins.
  • Defender gains Advantage 2: he will have a lot of time to organize if the hostile fleet uses jump travelling
  • Defender gains Advantage 3: cyno jammers are a lot more efficient now, as there are more systems that need jumping through more jammers need to be taken down to get through
  • Defender gains Advantage 4: capitals are now ships where timezone relevance is a lot higher through their cooldowns, and losing a fight might me a no-escape-scenario for the attacker.
  • Defender gains Advantage 5: **** ups during the travel will have a lot more impact, as they will cause a divergence on the timers of the capitals

The only option left for the attacker is to try to move his capitals on conventional travel using the jump drive to avoid one, maximum two blocks on the route.

To me the conclusion that this changes would actually make trench warfare worse, rather than to shake up nullsec seems quite obvious if you play out the scenario, and i really don’t think that

We expect the impact of these changes to be emergent, and as a consequence are unpredictable and will take a while to develop on TQ

makes a good excuse for not looking into the problem.

Rather than buying into the myth of the force projection problem CCP should be looking into shaking up things by incentivicing attacking large entities (for example through rewards from the empires), and creating new toys that allows asynchronous warfare (against super blobs as well as against support-swarms).

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